The very identity of the Republican Party is being redefined nationally and locally, and 2015 could be the year when Republicans begin to figure out what direction the party could take in the next generation.
A lot of this national Republican re-branding will take place in New Hampshire as the presidential primary comes to town.
Following two losing presidential elections and poll numbers even lower than President Barack Obama’s, the Republican Party is looking to reinvent itself. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul put a fine point on it recently, saying the GOP’s brand just “sucks.”
Besides Paul, another potential Republican presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, cautioned that while the 2014 midterm elections looked good for Republicans nationwide, it wasn’t as though voters were actually reaffirming Republican Party values. Exit polls of voters proved Perry right — that most were just voting against Obama more than for Republicans.
For many Republicans it is not just a marketing problem, but a whole searching for meaning and a path forward.
For a generation, many defined the Republican Party as a three-legged stool. Holding up that stool were three important legs: the fiscal conservative leg, the social conservative leg and the strong national security leg.
Currently each of these legs is being either undermined by forces inside of the Republican Party or being defined altogether.
The fiscal conservative leg has been under assault for a few years. This is a fight between Wall Street advocates and Main Street Republican populists. We can see this play out with Wall Street candidates like Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie taking on Main Street candidates like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in the presidential race.
The social conservative front is something that New Hampshire Republicans, in particular, have been sorting out lately. While many likely Republican presidential candidates will remain socially conservative because they will need to toe the line in other early primary states like Iowa and South Carolina, the pushback to all that will be here in the Granite State. Here in the Live Free or Die state, there is more of a libertarian wing of the Republican Party, who believes that government should stay out of people’s wallets and out of people’s bedrooms.
Lastly, there is also a significant debate among Republicans on national security.
This debate has largely focused on how involved the United States should be in foreign conflicts. Much of this debate has been forced by candidates like Senator Paul, who believe that the United States should scale back on efforts in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, other candidates believe that Paul’s position on national security is the very reason why he will not win the Republican presidential nomination.
To those who are sick of relentless negative ads full of sound bites and crave a political conversation full of deeper meaning, I welcome you to 2015.
Pirates bore down on the damaged freighter. Dark clouds of diesel smoke drifted over the gray swells. The flashing morse code calls for surrender glinted off James Pindell's glasses as he loaded his pistol one last time, then paused to radio the following message to shore.
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Brad Cook at NH Business Review recently pondered the upcoming year from the cigar smoke filled igloo in his backyard that serves as a winter clubhouse. First, the Legislature convenes in January with new Republican majorities in the House and Senate and the new speaker, Shawn Jasper, facing his first year of leadership opportunities. The NBC/Marist Poll absurdly asks people who they might vote for in the 2016 primary. The result: Marco Rubio - 16 % NBC/Marist released a new poll of New Hampshire residents this week. Notable results from registered voters:
Obama's job as President: Approve - 39% Disapprove - 54% The job being done by Republican in Congress: Approve - 19% Disapprove - 69% Senate Race: Jeanne Shaheen - 50% Scott Brown - 42% Maggie Hassan's job as Governor: Approve: 55% Disapprove: 30% Republican Primary: Brown - 61% Rubens - 16% Smith - 10% The ACA is: A good idea - 35% A bad idea - 53% Would you approve of disapprove of a proposal to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming, even if it would mean higher utility bills for consumers to pay for the changes? Approve - 53% Disapprove - 40% Should there be a pathway to citizenship for foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States? Favor: 50% Oppose: 46% Do you consider yourself: Liberal: 25% Moderate: 38% Conservative: 35% Currently, 45% of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Obama is doing as president, 50% disapprove, and 6% are neutral. While not as low as the job approval ratings of George W. Bush at this point in his second term (39% approve, 54% disapprove), these numbers may act to drag Democratic candidates down in the November midterm elections. 2014 likely voters disapprove of the President’s job performance by a 52%-45% margin. NH Journal's John DiStaso sat in the dark of his office at 1:47 AM, listlessly playing with the campaign memorabilia illumined by the harsh circle of the desk lamp's light, and feeling every gray hair. Pushing down the sour feeling in his stomach, he tossed back an Old Fashioned, winced and yelled to the campaign spirits, "Fuck! 2016! Let's do this." before tapping out the following story: Clinton and Republican Chris Christie lead their respective fields of potential 2016 presidential nominee, but in very different ways, a new poll shows. The biggest news out of a raft of new polls from Andy Smith and the WMUR Granite State Poll this week is not that Governor Maggie Smith is comfortably ahead or even that Frank Guinta has moved ahead of incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter in the first congressional district or even that Annie Kuster might be in trouble in the second c.d. UNH released it's latest polling last week. The poll of the governor's race and state legislature here, the poll of the congressional races here. Governor: Maggie Hassan has 60% job approval and 58% favorability Neither of challengers Walter Havenstein and Andrew Hemingway have favorable/unfavorable ratings above 7%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which likely impacts the following polling. In a match up with Hemingway, Hassan would be at 55%, and Hemingway would be at 31% In a match up with Havenstein, Hassan would be at 54% and Havenstein would be at 28% State Legislature: The NH legislature has an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 29% NH House: On a generic ballot 34% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 36% say they plan on voting Democratic. Based on past generic ballots UNH estimates that would translate into 222 seats for Republicans and 178 seats for Democrats, although they warn that without a good estimate of voter turnout those results could vary quite a bit. NH Senate: On a generic ballot 39% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 37% say they plan on voting Democratic. With the same caveat regarding turnout, UNH estimates that would play out to a 15-9 Republican majority. Congressional District One: Carol Shea-Porter has a 43% approval/31% disapproval rating Frank Guinta has a 32% approval/27% disapproval rating Dan Innis has an 11% approval/3% disapproval rating - suggesting results that follow reflect that he is unknown. In a match-up with Frank Guinta, he currently tops Shea-Porter 46% to 43% In a match-up with Dan Innis, he loses to Shea-Porter 38% to 45% Congressional District Two: Ann Kuster has 34% approval/28% disapproval. None of her challengers have approval/disapproval ratings above 10%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which impacts the following results. In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lambert 45% to 36% In a match-up Kuster currently beats Garcia 49% to 35% In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lawrence 47% to 35% Methodology: These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and sixty-nine (669) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between June 19 and July 1, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.8 percent. Included were 342 residents of New Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.3%) and 327 from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.4%). Of these residents, 263 in the First District (MSE =+/- 6.0%) and 246 (MSE = +/- 6.2%) in the Second District are 2014 likely voters. In New Hampshire, a state with its own libertarian (note the small “l”) bent, the U.S. Supreme Court decision in the so-called Hobby Lobby case will cut both ways as the election moves closer. There are a few articles about the ACA this morning. First up Ferdous Al-Faruque at The Hill writes about the impact of the ACA on the upcoming elections: A strong majority, 68 percent, say ObamaCare will affect their vote in November’s congressional elections, according to a new poll, but the public remains split on what Congress should do with the landmark health law. |