UNH released it's latest polling last week. The poll of the governor's race and state legislature here, the poll of the congressional races here.
Governor:
Maggie Hassan has 60% job approval and 58% favorability
Neither of challengers Walter Havenstein and Andrew Hemingway have favorable/unfavorable ratings above 7%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which likely impacts the following polling.
In a match up with Hemingway, Hassan would be at 55%, and Hemingway would be at 31%
In a match up with Havenstein, Hassan would be at 54% and Havenstein would be at 28%
State Legislature:
The NH legislature has an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 29%
NH House:
On a generic ballot 34% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 36% say they plan on voting Democratic. Based on past generic ballots UNH estimates that would translate into 222 seats for Republicans and 178 seats for Democrats, although they warn that without a good estimate of voter turnout those results could vary quite a bit.
NH Senate:
On a generic ballot 39% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 37% say they plan on voting Democratic. With the same caveat regarding turnout, UNH estimates that would play out to a 15-9 Republican majority.
Congressional District One:
Carol Shea-Porter has a 43% approval/31% disapproval rating
Frank Guinta has a 32% approval/27% disapproval rating
Dan Innis has an 11% approval/3% disapproval rating - suggesting results that follow reflect that he is unknown.
In a match-up with Frank Guinta, he currently tops Shea-Porter 46% to 43%
In a match-up with Dan Innis, he loses to Shea-Porter 38% to 45%
Congressional District Two:
Ann Kuster has 34% approval/28% disapproval. None of her challengers have approval/disapproval ratings above 10%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which impacts the following results.
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lambert 45% to 36%
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Garcia 49% to 35%
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lawrence 47% to 35%
Methodology:
Governor:
Maggie Hassan has 60% job approval and 58% favorability
Neither of challengers Walter Havenstein and Andrew Hemingway have favorable/unfavorable ratings above 7%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which likely impacts the following polling.
In a match up with Hemingway, Hassan would be at 55%, and Hemingway would be at 31%
In a match up with Havenstein, Hassan would be at 54% and Havenstein would be at 28%
State Legislature:
The NH legislature has an approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 29%
NH House:
On a generic ballot 34% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 36% say they plan on voting Democratic. Based on past generic ballots UNH estimates that would translate into 222 seats for Republicans and 178 seats for Democrats, although they warn that without a good estimate of voter turnout those results could vary quite a bit.
NH Senate:
On a generic ballot 39% of voters say they plan on voting Republican and 37% say they plan on voting Democratic. With the same caveat regarding turnout, UNH estimates that would play out to a 15-9 Republican majority.
Congressional District One:
Carol Shea-Porter has a 43% approval/31% disapproval rating
Frank Guinta has a 32% approval/27% disapproval rating
Dan Innis has an 11% approval/3% disapproval rating - suggesting results that follow reflect that he is unknown.
In a match-up with Frank Guinta, he currently tops Shea-Porter 46% to 43%
In a match-up with Dan Innis, he loses to Shea-Porter 38% to 45%
Congressional District Two:
Ann Kuster has 34% approval/28% disapproval. None of her challengers have approval/disapproval ratings above 10%, suggesting no one knows who they are, which impacts the following results.
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lambert 45% to 36%
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Garcia 49% to 35%
In a match-up Kuster currently beats Lawrence 47% to 35%
Methodology:
These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Six hundred and sixty-nine (669) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between June 19 and July 1, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.8 percent. Included were 342 residents of New Hampshire’s First Congressional District (MSE = +/- 5.3%) and 327 from the Second District (MSE = +/- 5.4%). Of these residents, 263 in the First District (MSE =+/- 6.0%) and 246 (MSE = +/- 6.2%) in the Second District are 2014 likely voters.
The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households, respondent sex, age, and region of the state. In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions.