While Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan have a strong chance of being re-elected this fall, political analysts say don’t be surprised if Republicans prevail in the other top state races.
That includes races in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional districts, where Democratic incumbents Carol Shea-Porter and Ann Kuster are seen as especially vulnerable.
Republicans are also likely to be victorious in the majority of the state House and Senate races as well, with a good chance the GOP will regain control of the 400-seat House, the analysts said.
But, in many cases, it has little to do with the strength of the candidates running for state representative or Senate, they said.
It has everything to do with what’s happening in Washington as President Barack Obama’s leadership continues to be questioned and his popularity declines, the experts said.
Polls released last week by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports show Obama’s favorability rating at slightly above 40 percent, while more than 50 percent disapproved of his job performance.
“Historically speaking, an unpopular president doesn’t bode well for his party in the midterm elections,” said University of New Hampshire political professor Dante Scala.
Neil Levesque agrees. He is the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute for Politics at St. Anselm College.
Voters tired of the Obama administration are going to seek change at the expense of Democrats at all levels, he said.
“I think there are some issues in Washington where you are going to see the advantage given to the Republicans,” Levesque said. “That’s normally what happens when you are six years into an administration.”
But Scala and Levesque said popular Democrats such as Hassan — seeking her second term as governor — and Shaheen, running for re-election to the U.S. Senate, would be difficult to unseat.
The Eagle Tribune's Doug Ireland rounds up analyst projections for November:
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A recent Boston Herald/Suffolk University Poll asked NH voters some questions. A summary:
45% of those polled had a favorable opinion of President Obama, while 49% had an unfavorable opinion. Of those who had voted for Obama about 8.5% regretted it. 41% thought the Affordable Care Act was generally good for New Hampshire, while 47.5% thought it was generally bad. 73% of those surveyed said they plan to vote in the Republican Primary this year on September 9th. (28% of all poll respondents said they were Democrats, 30% said they were Republicans and 40% identified themselves as Independent/Undeclared.) 54% plan on voting for Walter Havenstein, while 29% plan on voting for his main challenger, Andrew Hemingway. 40% plan on voting for Scott Brown, while 4% plan on voting for Jim Rubens and 12% plan on voting for Bob Smith. In the 2016 Republican primary 11% said they favored Chris Christie, 11% Rand Paul, 8% Ted Cruz, 7% Jon Huntsman. Other candidates fell within the poll's margin of error. In a follow up question about who respondents favored if their main choice wasn't available Chris Christie scored 12% while Marco Rubio jumped to 12%. If Mitt Romney were added to the list of candidates he would tower over other candidates with 24% support and no other candidates cracking 10%. In the general election this year Maggie Hassan seems pretty secure: Hassan v. Havenstein: 51% to 19% Hassan v. Hemingway: 51% to 17% When asked if they support or oppose the Tea Party in NH 25% supported and 48% opposed. When asked if they supported President Obama authorizing air strikes and drone attacks in Iraq 43% supported and 34% opposed. Two recent polls of the senate race agree that Scott Brown is running about ten points behind Jeanne Shaheen.
The Boston Herald/Suffolk University poll put Shaheen at 49% support and Brown at 39%. The American Research Group poll put Shaheen at 50% and Brown at 38%. To some degree that simply reflects that Democrats are more united behind Shaheen, and Brown will likely close that gap a bit if he wins the primaries. But I was a bit blown away by the internals of the ARG poll. Men are supporting Brown over Shaheen by 14 points. Women are supporting Shaheen over Brown by 36 points. And for a Republican who voted with Democrats 53% of the time, Brown gets no love from undeclared voters, who favor Shaheen by 35 points. The group Digital 4th recently commissioned a poll of New Hampshire residents by the firm Vox Populi, regarding public support for updating the 1986 Electronic Communications Privacy Act to provide better online privacy protections. Vox Populi surveyed 512 active voters in New Hampshire, and the poll has a margin of error at +/- 4.3%. I can't find the exact wording of the question pollsters asked. Take what you will from 85% of NH residents favoring updating the ECPA according to this poll. I'm sure that support is strong, but maybe not quite that strong with a fairly worded poll question - polls like this are mostly about grabbing eyeballs for their sponsors. And here you are reading this post, so . . . they got us. Here's Vox Populi's memo regarding the poll: Updating the Electronic Communications Privacy Act offers a rare opportunity for elected leaders and Chris Mooney at Mother Jones has a good write up of the emerging split between traditional Republicans and Tea Partiers on environmental issues discovered by UNH's Carsey Institute last month: This is pretty striking: The first three political groups—Democrats, independents, and non-tea party Republicans—all trust scientists on the environment. But then you come to tea party members, and suddenly, distrust in scientists soars. The numbers are stark: 60 percent of traditional Republicans trust scientists on the environment, versus only 28 percent of tea partiers. Today was the first day of the filing period for candidates. Representative Steve Vaillancourt does some back of the envelope calculations: I see the new Senate as being 14-10 Republicans, and while I won’t get into House races individually just yet, I’ve upped my prediction from 32 to 47 seat gains for Republican (using the five percent baseline previously alluded to), setting the GOP with about 225 seats when the new House forms in December. The polling firm Vox Populi recently published a poll of voters in both the Republican Primary and the General Election concerning New Hampshire's Senate race.
METHODOLOGY: The sample size for the survey is 707 Active Voters taken from a listed sample of registered voters who have voted in the 2010 or 2012 general elections. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 %. The MoE for the GOP Primary Voter Series is +/- 5.2 %. 534 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 173 were conducted using mobile based survey technology. All interviews were conducted May 14-15, 2014 by Vox Populi Polling. The total percentages for responses may not equal 100% due to rounding Republican Primary: Brown: 38% Smith: 13% Rubens: 9% Testerman: 8% Unsure: 28% Refused: 4% General Election: Shaheen: 47% Brown: 35% Undecided: 13% Refused: 4% Shaheen: 45% Smith: 34% Undecided: 15% Refused: 6% Josh Katz at the New York Times blog The Upshot doesn't see much of a future for Scott Brown: Scott Brown, a former Republican senator, is struggling in his race for a Senate seat in New Hampshire. Despite a reputation for having smooth political skills — he handily won election in 2010 to the seat once held by Ted Kennedy in heavily Democratic Massachusetts — our model, which we call Leo, gives Mr. Brown only a 3 percent chance to unseat the Democratic incumbent, Jeanne Shaheen. The Nelson A. Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College has released its 2014 State of the State poll: Methodology Results below the fold -
A new poll shows Senator Shaheen leading Scott Brown by six points and Governor Hassan leading Andrew Hemingway by twenty-two points.
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