The biggest news out of a raft of new polls from Andy Smith and the WMUR Granite State Poll this week is not that Governor Maggie Smith is comfortably ahead or even that Frank Guinta has moved ahead of incumbent Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter in the first congressional district or even that Annie Kuster might be in trouble in the second c.d.
It's not even that Walt Havenstein, the choice of the tired old Republican establishment, does not better against Hassan than newcomer Andy Hemingway. In fact, depending on how you read the polls, Hemingway does better than Havenstein. Real Clear Politics reports Hassan leads Havenstein by 24 points (57-31) and Hemingway by "only" 24 points (55-31). So much for the notion that Havenstein, flanked by former Governors Craig Benson and Steve Merrill, would strike fear into Hassan.
Quite clearly, Hemingway might be the best hope for the GOP, and that's where at last we get to the biggest news out of the WMUR/UNH poll.
Andy Smith reports what should come as no surprise, that Republicans enjoy a 20 point lead in their enthusiasm for this election. It's 71-51 percent, the kind of numbers which, if unchanged, could take not only Shea Porter and Kuster down come November but Hassan and Seantor Jeanne Shaheen as well (Smith hasn't released new numbers on the Senate race yet, but the RCP average has Shaheen up by 10).
Clearly, 10 points is not enough to survive a 20 point deficit in enthusiasm, and most of that interest seems to develop around not the same old GOP pablum pushers like Havenstein but around Andy Hemingway's exciting new approach to campaigning.
All right, it's time for a truth in blogging alert--I'm a big backer of Andy Hemingway, but I didn't start out as one. He won me over.
Here are the numbers released so far, with the caveat that they differ somewhat as reported by Channel 9 and on RCP.
Frank Guinta leads Carol Shea Porter by four points, 47-43, but newcomer Dan Innis has pulled within seven points of Shea Porter (46-39), so the incumbent could well be in trouble no matter who wins the GOP primary, especially consdiering that 20 point enthusiasm gap.
In the second c.d., Kuster leads Gary Lambert by eight (46-38), Jim Lawrence by 12 (48-36) and State Rep Marlinda Garcia by 14 (50-36).
The fact that both Shea Porter and Kuster are under 50 percent against all potential Republican opponents should be very troubling indeed for Democrats, thinking again of that 20 point enthusiam gap.